Impact of policy measures on wheat-to-bread supply chain during the global commodity price peaks – The case of Serbia

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of governmental market interventions in Serbia, among them a wheat export ban, on the country’s integration into the international wheat market and the domestic wheat-to-bread supply chain during the global commodity price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11. By applying two regime-dependent price transmission models (i.e. Markov-switching models), we help to clarify the impact of the governmental market interventions on two different price transmission contexts: the horizontal one, where we analyze the price transmission and market integration between the Serbian and the world wheat markets; and the vertical one, where we analyze the price transmission mechanisms within the Serbian wheat-to-bread supply chain. Furthermore, we conducted simulations of flour and bread production costs and the bakers’ and retailers’ profits in order to identify who benefited from and who lost due to the extensive governmental interventions.

• Prof. Dr. Dr. Vlade Zaric (University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia)
• Prof. Dr. Natalija Bogdanov (University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia)
• Vukosav Sakovic, Serbian Grain Fund, Serbia
• Zdravko Sajatovic (Zitovojvodina – Association for the development of milling and baking industry, Serbia)
• Prof. Dr. Drago Cvijanovic (Institute of Agricultural Economics (IAE), Serbia)