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Economic strategies for an adaptation to risks induced by climate change: a sectoral and regional analysis of plant production in Germany

Research domain:
Organisation of agriculture

Project duration:
01.07.2012 - 01.07.2015

Reactions to the environmental changes associated with climate change are specific to plant species, leading to disproportional changes in yields. This disproportionality might influence the relative profitability of crops depending on relevant price developments. Such changes in the natural and economic environments are unlikely to be passively met by grain producers.

Our project sets out to investigate a specific type of potential adaptation behavior of grain producers in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany: gradually adjusting target output quantities and corresponding input use.

A hybrid model for climate change impact assessment has been conceived and is being developed. Agricultural outputs are modeled as a combination of two quantities: bio-physically determined yields, the crop yields observed at relevant experimental stations (or predicted by a plant growth simulation model), the aspirations of grain producers, and the output quantities they should be striving to produce given the information available up to a certain point in the time. The input quantities committed to production are modeled as the cost effective way to produce the output quantities aspired to.

The project is part of the joint research project Plant-based innovations and climate change – assessment and evaluation of entrepreneurial adaptations induced by risk and their effects on commodity markets of the ScienceCampus Halle – Plant-based Bioeconomy (WCH).

Partners

  • Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), Germany Website