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IAMO researcher achieve recognition in international data science competition on water supply forecasting

In November 2024, IAMO researcher Atabek Umirbekov and Chanxing Dong won 5th place in the "Explainability and Communication Bonus Track" category of a data science competition on water supply forecasting organised by DrivenData.

The competition organized by DrivenData in collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation was designed to improve seasonal water supply forecasting across the western United States. Critical challenges in water resource management are to be overcome, including crop production, hydropower generation, and drought mitigation.

In the period from October 2023 to August 2024, the 560 participants were tasked with developing accurate water supply forecast models for 26 sites across the Western United States, focusing on both technical accuracy and the effective communication of insights to stakeholders. The proposed solution for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the Western US by Atabek Umirbekov und Chanxing Dong employs a partial least squares regression model, features rigorous selection of representative predictor variables, extensive cross-validation, and estimation of forecast exceedance probabilities. Their approach to communicating forecasts involves presenting predictions alongside the current state of key hydrological variables within a historical context. The approach also emphasizes which factors are most important for making accurate predictions at the time the forecast is issued. Interest in participating in the competition stemmed from the team’s and IAMO’s dedication to tackling climate and water challenges for agriculture.


Contact

Atabek Umirbekov

Atabek Umirbekov

Research Associate
Room: 250

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Dr. Changxing Dong

Dr. Changxing Dong

Research Associate
Room: 344

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