From September 20 to 22, 2023, experts discussed the topic of "Sustainable Food Systems and Land Use Change" at this year's GEWISOLA (Society for Economic and Social Sciences of Agriculture) scientific conference in Göttingen, Germany. In the process, the conference paper by Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, Thomas Glauben, Sören Prehn, Linde Götz and Miranda Svanidze, in which they examine the stability of the global wheat trade network in the post-Soviet era, was honored with an award for best conference paper. Two other researching teams were recognized in this category, too.
The Agricultural Markets Department research team analysed annual trade data for the period 2001-2021 and constructed a discrete-time hazard model to estimate the baseline hazard and the survival ratio for 11 major wheat exporters. The international wheat market has entered into a new era since 2000 as the structural changes in post-Soviet Union states had impacts. Kazakhstan, Russian Federation and Ukraine (KRU) have started to utilise their vast resources and rapidly became major actors in international grain markets. Romania in East Europe is another emerging grain exporter since the collapse of Iron Wall. Upon the Russia invasion of Ukraine and short-run disruptions in global wheat, corn and oilseed supply chains, it becomes a question of how different is the stability of grain trade relation between these new actors and old actors before the war (in this study, older actors are USA, Canada, Australia, UK, France, Germany and Argentina). The results of these estimation for 2001-2021 show that we can’t recognise separate clusters for old and new actors and the probability of trade survival with importers in longer period is very diverse between old and new actors. For instance, USA and Russia show a similar pattern as Ukraine and Germany.
All contributions of the event will be published in a conference volume of the series "Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.".
