Group A: Socio-ecological and farm organizational dynamics

Aim: This project component aims to disentangle the interplay between environmental and human dynamics in selected areas of rural China. Specifically, we will investigate the determinants of and the linkages between observed environmental changes and rural welfare levels over time and space. The results are expected to shed light on the socio-ecological interactions in rapidly changing circumstances in order to propose adequate policy and management options. The thematic focus will be on the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) its impacts on rural land use and household welfare. The empirical work of this sub-component takes place in two counties of Yunnan province.
In a second sub-component, we will aim to analyze the establishment of farm cooperatives and the impact of institutional and cultural factors on the structure of these farm organizations. This empirical work will take place in Zhejiang and Sichuan provinces where dynamic farm organizations were first introduced and are well developed.

Methodology:  Spatial statistics; Bayesian belief networks; geographic information systems, new institutional economics, network analysis, supply-chain analysis, agent-based modeling, participatory methods.

Sub-topics:

1. Assessment, description, and visualization of environmental change (e.g., in particular land use)
2. Integrated analysis of welfare dynamics (from Group B) and demographic changes (from Group C) with environmental change.
3. Explorative analysis and simulations of nature-society interactions over time and space.
4. Description and analysis of farm business structures.
5. Investigation of social and environmental implications of changing farm business structures.